Ayear ago, we predicted the hybrid market would resume growth in 2011—after three years of sliding sales. That didn’t pan out. Compared to 2010, last year’s sales of gas-electric vehicles fell by 2.2 percent—so, the slide continued for a fourth year. Yet, the essentially flat sales could be viewed as decent, considering the severe impact of the March 2011 Japanese earthquake on the supply of gas-electric and purely electric vehicles.
As we move into spring 2012, the same things we said last year about hybrid growth are true again. Gas prices are key—and trouble in the Middle East could lead to $5 a gallon gas by summer. Just in time, Toyota (the hybrid stalwart) is rolling out new versions of the Prius—while Volkswagen (the hybrid laggard) is finally putting its first viable gas-electric vehicle on sale. That means an almost certain growth in hybrids in 2012, even if by only a few percentage points.
More Electric Car Choices
Last year was a landmark year for EVs. There were regional launches of the Nissan LEAF and the Chevy Volt. These two plug-in cars were the start of a new era for electrified personal transportation. But two models—selling a combined 19,000 units—is a fraction of one percent of new car sales. That’s a drop in the bucket, especially compared to the amount of buzz and online chatter these two cars created.
The story starts to change in 2012, when these two plug-in cars will be joined by approximately 10 more models that use household electricity for automotive fuel. The list includes Ford Focus Electric, Coda Electric Sedan, Fisker Karma, Honda Fit EV, Mitsubishi i, Toyota RAV4 EV, Toyota Prius Plug-in Hybrid, and the Tesla Model S. The key question is if the market needs so many electric choices—especially considering the slow start for Volt and LEAF sales in 2012.
0 comments:
Post a Comment